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Spurs at Mavericks Odds, Picks, Score Prediction & 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

Spurs at Mavericks Odds, Picks, Score Prediction & 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

The Dallas Mavericks begin defense of their Western Conference title as they welcome reigning NBA Rookie of the Year and rising superstar Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in the opener for both.

The Mavs are solid favorites on the NBA odds for the national TV matchup.

Opening NBA Lines Subject to Change: Mavericks -8 (total 229.5)
Expert Prediction: Mavericks 114, Spurs 106
 

San Antonio Spurs +257

The Spurs were terrible last season despite one of the great rookie seasons in history from 7-footer Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft and pretty clearly the next great player in the league. The Spurs lost 26 of 28 games from late fall to mid-winter with a roster lacking experience and talent. They finished 22-60 and fell back into the draft lottery.

Victor Wembanyama

In becoming the first unanimous Rookie of the Year since Karl-Anthony Towns in the 2015-16 season, Wemby led all rookies in points (21.4), rebounds (10.6) and blocks (3.6) per game, in addition to ranking fourth in assists (3.9) and second in steals (1.2) per game. He was the second rookie to lead all NBA players in blocks per game in a season, joining Manute Bol (1985-86).

Wembanyama became the first player to average at least 20.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in fewer than 30 minutes per game in a season. He was also the first player to have at least 1,500 points, 700 rebounds, 250 assists, 250 blocks and 100 3-pointers made in a season. This summer, Wemby helped lead France to the silver medal in the Paris Olympics – losing in a close gold medal game to Team USA.

The New Players

San Antonio added two veterans this offseason in future Hall of Famer point guard Chris Paul and forward Harrison Barnes while drafting UConn freshman guard Stephon Castle at No. 4 overall. Last season with the Warriors, Paul, a 12-time All-Star, accepted a bench role and started only 18 of the 58 games he played, averaging 9.2 points and 6.8 assists in 26.4 minutes. In his starts, Paul averaged 11.9 points and 7.3 assists. Paul is third all-time in the NBA in assists with 11,894 and joins a roster that went into the offseason with a need at point guard. Paul is on track to become the 11th player in NBA history to play 20 seasons. When Wemby shared the floor with a competent point guard last season, the Spurs outscored opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions, a better net rating than the 50-win Knicks.

Harrison Barnes

Barnes was acquired in a three-way deal that included Chicago and Sacramento. Barnes started all 82 games for the Kings last season, averaging 12.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists while shooting 38.7% from three. He scored in double figures in 51 games, including 20+ points in 13 games and 30+ points three times.

Gregg Popovich

Popovich enters his 29th season as the Spurs head coach and San Antonio is 193-34 under Popovich when they dish out 30+ assists. The Spurs averaged 29.8 assists in 2023-24, second in the NBA. They set a franchise record for total assists with 2,449.

San Antonio has gone five straight years without qualifying for the postseason. Prior to that stretch, the franchise went consecutive years without a playoff berth just once, and that was when it competed in the ABA during just its third and fourth years in existence. It will not be a playoff team this season, either, but could get closer to .500 overall.

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Dallas Mavericks -313

After a 2022-23 season which saw the Mavericks miss their first trip to the postseason under head coach Jason Kidd after posting a 38-44 record, the team bounced back in 2023-24 to notch its second 50-win season under Coach Jason Kidd at 50-32 and make their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2011. However, the Mavs were no match there for the Celtics.

Klay Thompson

Dallas is largely back intact other than adding one big piece: Former Warriors guard and future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson on a three-year, $50 million deal. In 2023-24, Thompson averaged 17.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists per game while shooting 43.2% overall and 38.7% on 3-pointers. Overall, it marked the first season in which Thompson played in 70 or more games and failed to average at least 20 ppg since 2013-14 when he posted 18.4 ppg. Thompson is sixth on the NBA’s all-time 3-pointers made list with 2,481, behind Reggie Miller (2,560), Damian Lillard (2,607), James Harden (2,940), Ray Allen (2,973) and Thompson’s now-former “Splash Brother” with the Warriors, Stephen Curry (3,747).

The New Players

The Mavs also made some smaller moves in signing free agents Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall and trading for Quentin Grimes. In 2022-2023, Grimes had a breakout sophomore season with the Knicks, averaging 11.3 points per game on 38.6% three-point shooting. Last year, he battled injuries, fell in and out of the rotation and was ultimately traded to the Pistons, where he played six awful games before knee injuries sidelined him for the last month of the season. Grimes adds depth to a Mavericks guard group that is led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Spencer Dinwiddie

Dinwiddie returns to Dallas after spending last season with the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers. In his previous stint with the team, he helped the Mavericks to a Western Conference Finals appearance in 2021-22 after averaging 14.2 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists through 18 games.

Luka Doncic

Doncic had a career year where he led the league in scoring (33.9 ppg), finished third in NBA MVP voting and stayed (relatively) healthy last season. Doncic has 77 triple-doubles in his career and is one away from passing James Harden for 8th on the NBA’s all-time list.

Doncic and Irving became just the third duo in NBA history to end the season recording at least 25 points, five rebounds and five assists each. Dončić finished the season winning the first scoring title in Mavericks history while adding 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game with Irving averaging 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists. The only other duos who have done so in the same season are Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant (2018, 2019) and James Harden and Russell Westbrook (2020).

The Mavericks finished third in the league last season in 3-pointers made with 1,197, shooting 1,197-for-3,242 3FG for a .369 clip from behind the arc (Boston, Golden State). The team’s 1,197 3-pointers total for the season ranked for the second-most 3-pointers in a single season in franchise history (1,246, 2022-23).

In 20 career games (15-5 record) against the Spurs, Doncic is averaging 29.4 points (.471 FG%), 8.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game. He recorded a triple-double in three of his four games against San Antonio in 2023-24 (his 3 triple-doubles were his most against any team in 2023-24) and averaged 29.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 11.0 assists against the Spurs last season. Doncic now recorded seven triple-doubles against San Antonio in his career – his most against any one franchise.

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How to Watch Spurs at Mavericks

When: Thursday, 7:30 PM ET Where: American Airlines Center TV: TNT Stream: TNT app

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Spurs vs Mavericks Last Season

Dallas was 4-0 last year vs. San Antonio and has won 16 of the past 19 in the series dating to November 2019 after the Spurs won 25 of 29 in the series from March 2012 to April 2019. Dallas has taken eight of the last 10 matchups at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks are 3-3 (.500) all-time in season-opening games against the Spurs. They met to open last season and the Mavs won 126-119 on the road. Luka Doncic had had 33 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists in that one, becoming the first Maverick to record a triple-double in a season opener in franchise history and the third player in NBA history with a 30-point triple-double in a season opener (Oscar Robertson (twice) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019).

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2019 Spurs vs Mavericks
 

The Dallas Mavericks are just playing out the string on this season, while the San Antonio Spurs are trying to lock down one of the West’s final playoff spots. The state rivals clash in Dallas on Tuesday night, their last meeting there this season. The Spurs will be NBA lines favorites.

Spurs vs Mavericks NBA Spread & Expert Pick

28 PTS | 6 AST | 4 REB | 2 STL@DeMar_DeRozan went to work vs. Milwaukee! pic.twitter.com/WGYuUoQ9Pw

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) 11 de marzo de 2019
  • When: Tuesday, 8 PM ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center
  • TV: TNT
  • Live Stream: NBA League Pass
  • NBA Spread: San Antonio Spurs -5

Bucks vs Pelicans NBA Odds, Preview & Prediction

Season Series

Spurs lead 2-0, having won both games by five-or-fewer points (the Spurs recorded a 113-108 overtime win over the Mavericks at home on 10/29/18 and a 105-101 victory over Dallas on the road on 1/16/19). Stellar Mavs rookie Luka Doncic is averaging a team-high 28.0 points (.538 FG%, .467 3FG%, .875 FT%), 8.0 rebounds, a team-best 6.0 assists, 1.0 steal and 38.0 minutes for Dallas vs. San Antonio.

Ten of the last 11 regular-season meetings between the Mavericks and Spurs have been decided by seven points or less. San Antonio has gone 9-2 in those 11 games. The Spurs have won three straight, 13 of the last 15, and 27 of the last 33 regular-season meetings.

Why Bet on San Antonio?

The Spurs are simply a different team at home and that showed in their fifth straight win Sunday, 121-114 over NBA-best Milwaukee. The Spurs rallied from down 15 early and the winning streak matches their longest of the season. San Antonio has owned its past eight at home, and that run also includes wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and the Spurs have now beaten the top three teams in the East at home after topping Philadelphia in December and Toronto in January.

LaMarcus Aldridge scored a game-high 29 points, hitting 14-of-26 shots with 15 rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocks. Aldridge now has more career rebounds than Oscar Robinson. DeMar DeRozan chipped in 28 points.

Marco Belinelli played 30 minutes, scoring 16 points on 6-of-14 shooting with four 3-pointers, three rebounds, two assists, and one steal. Rudy Gay (illness) was out of commission, opening up an extra run for Belinelli and Davis Bertans (five points, four boards, three assists in 27 minutes).

Jakob Poeltl (hamstring) returned to action on Sunday with eight points, eight rebounds and three assists in 27 minutes. Poeltl missed one game with some tightness in his hamstring. Since the All-Star break, Poeltl has averaged a solid 7.1 points on 62.2% shooting, 8.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 0.7 steals in just 21.9 minutes.

The Spurs franchise was originally located in Dallas. The Chaparrals as they were called moved to the Alamo City in 1973 after being sold to a group of local investors. The first game in Mavs history was a 103-92 win over the Spurs on 10/11/80.

Team Stats

Offense

  • Total Score: 112.01
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.76
  • Three-Point Percentage: 39.92
  • Free Throw Percentage: 81.95
  • Total Rebounds: 44.55

Defense

  • Total Score: 111.00
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.59
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36.36
  • Free Throw Percentage: 75.66
  • Total Rebounds: 44.06

Why Bet on Dallas?

The Mavs lost their fifth straight and 10th in the past 11 on Sunday, 94-93 to Houston. After James Harden missed a runner with 8.9 seconds to play, the Mavericks had a chance to win. Coach Rick Carlisle opted to let it play out and rookie Luka Doncic rushed the ball up court. As three Rockets converged on him, Doncic found Jalen Brunson on the right wing, but Chris Paul recovered to make a clean block on Brunson’s running 14-footer at the buzzer.

Doncic grabbed a career-high 15 rebounds on Sunday, one shy of Jason Kidd’s franchise record for a guard, adding 19 points, nine assists, two steals, and two blocks. He shot 5-of-16 from the field and 8-of-9 from the line but was forced to give up the ball on the Mavs’ final possession due to a swarm of defenders. Doncic said he felt a “pop” in his left knee during the game. Doncic briefly went back to the locker room, but returned and kept playing through the injury. Obviously, monitor that. The Mavs will play it cautious with their young star. There won’t be a line set until his status is clear.

Spurs vs Mavericks is going to be a really close one.

Maxi Kleber (left knee effusion) returned to action on Sunday with 10 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks, one steal and one assist in 31 minutes. Kleber made 4-of-7 field goals and both of his free throws and showed no signs of the knee ailment that cost him two games.

Brunson had 18 points, seven boards, and four assists in 35 minutes, making 6-of-13 FGs and 5-of-5 FTs with one 3-pointer. He’s averaging 15.7 points, 1.3 triples, 7.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 0.3 steals in his past three games.

Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki scored six points. He needs 35 more to pass Wilt Chamberlain for sixth place on the NBA’s career scoring list. Nowitzki did not play in the second half, something coach Rick Carlisle called “a coach’s decision because the matchups were very difficult.” The 40-year-old legend is averaging a mere 6.8 points on 27.5% shooting in March, playing just 16.0 minutes per game.

Team Stats

Offense

  • Total Score: 107.91
  • Field Goal Percentage: 44.53
  • Three-Point Percentage: 34.05
  • Free Throw Percentage: 73.97
  • Total Rebounds: 45.14

Defense

  • Total Score: 109.61
  • Field Goal Percentage: 45.95
  • Three-Point Percentage: 34.71
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.86
  • Total Rebounds: 44.53

Trail Blazers vs Clippers NBA Odds, Game Preview & Pick

Spurs vs Mavericks NBA Betting Trends

  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas
  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • Underdog is 23-4 ATS in the last 27 meetings
  • San Antonio is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
  • San Antonio is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Antonio’s last 12 games on the road
  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
  • Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 6 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Spurs vs Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs 107 – Dallas Mavericks 108

 
 
 
 

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