Orioles vs Diamondbacks: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

It’s a pair of playoff contenders meeting in the desert to open a series on Friday night as AL East-leading Baltimore takes on NL wild-card hopeful Arizona with the Orioles as short favorites on the MLB odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 21: Monday August 28 – Sunday September 3, 2023

How to Bet Baltimore at Arizona MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Cole Irvin/Zach Davies
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Orioles -120, Diamondbacks +100 (total 9.5)

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles lead the AL East by 1.5 games with an 83-50 record so they will be playoff bound one way or another. They had a chance to sweep the visiting White Sox on Wednesday but blew a 4-0 first-inning lead and lost 10-5. Anthony Santander homered for the Orioles, who hit two doubles and a pair of singles in the first inning off Dylan Cease before fading to their third loss in 12 games. Santander has a season-high nine-game hitting streak. His nine RBI in the last three games are the most in a three-game span in his career.

AL Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson collected his 21st double and 49th extra-base hit of the season in the first inning of Wednesday’s loss. He is tied for third among AL rookies in doubles. Henderson’s 4.6 bWAR is the third-best by a rookie position player in Orioles history. He’s the third rookie in team history to record 20+ doubles, 5+ triples, and 20+ homers, joining Cal Ripken, Jr. (1982) and Ron Hansen (1960), both of whom won AL Rookie of the Year.

The Orioles went 18-9 in August for their second-best month of 2023, behind only March/April (19-9). It would take a large September collapse for them not to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2016. The Orioles have gone 82 consecutive series of at least two decisions (no ties) without being swept. That is the fifth-longest such streak in MLB history. The Birds have not been swept in a series of at least two games since May 13-15, 2022 at Detroit (0-3).

Note that rosters will expand on Friday and there are two young players who will be called up by the Orioles in pitcher Joey Krehbiel and outfielder Colton Cowser. Krehbiel has gone back-and-forth between the majors and minors a few times this season but has appeared in just two games for the Orioles, tossing 1.2 scoreless frames. Cowser was sent down earlier in August after posting just a .434 OPS over his first 77 plate appearances at the big-league level.

It’s lefty Cole Irvin (1-3) on the mound Friday. Irvin did not factor into the decision last Friday, allowing four runs on six hits and one walk over six innings against Colorado. He struck out five. It was third start since the All-Star break and it was his least effective effort. After allowing just one run in 10 innings during his previous two starts, his night was capped by a two-run fifth-inning home run by Ezequiel Tovar that gave the Rockies a 4-2 lead . The Orioles rallied late to allow Irvin to escape with a no-decision, however. Irvin has a 4.78 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 64 innings.

This will be Irvin’s first-ever start vs. Arizona. He’s 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA (12 ER/33.2 IP) and three quality starts in six career appearances (four starts) against the NL West. Overall, Irvin has pitched to a 4-3 record with a 4.76 ERA (40 ER/75.2 IP) and four quality starts in 18 career Interleague appearances (12 starts).

The Orioles have won 45, or 70.3%, of the 64 games they’ve played as favorites this season.

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Why Bet on Arizona?

The current NL wild card spots are held by the Philadelphia Phillies (74-59), Chicago Cubs (71-62) and San Francisco Giants (69-64), with the Diamondbacks (69-65), Cincinnati Reds (69-66) and Miami Marlins (66-67) all within three games of a spot.

The Diamondbacks were three games at the Dodgers to open this week, each in lopsided fashion. Arizona was outscored 23-5 in the series and outhit 38-20. The timely hitting that carried them to 10 wins in 12 games ahead of this series wasn’t there, as they went just 2-for-20 with runners in scoring position.

“I think we’ve been a very resilient team,” Manager Torey Lovullo said. “We know that we’re a good team and our guys are frustrated right now. … So I know they’re wearing it, but I want them to turn the page, because we can’t do a darn thing about it. We know we didn’t play good here.”

No. 1 catcher Gabriel Moreno got Wednesday off but should be in there Friday. Moreno, 23, has slashed .340/.380/.638 with three home runs and 12 RBI in 13 games since he returned Aug. 13 from a bout of shoulder inflammation.

NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corgin Carroll has become the second Arizona player ever with at least 20 homer and 40 steals in a season and the fourth rookie all-time in MLB history along with Mike Trout, Mitchell Page and Tommie Agee.

It’s right-hander Zach Davies (1-5) on the mound Friday. Davies allowed a run on five hits and two walks while striking out five over five-plus innings in a no-decision versus the Reds last Saturday. Davies was solid in his return from lower-back inflammation, with his lone mistake being a solo home run by Matt McLain in the sixth inning. Davies threw 86 pitches (54 strikes) in the start, his sharpest since he posted seven shutout innings against the Rays on June 28. The veteran has a 6.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 51:29 K:BB through 62.1 innings over 13 starts. Opponents have a .289 batting average against him.

The Diamondbacks have been underdogs in 73 games this season and have won 33 of them (45.2%).

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Expert Prediction

Orioles 6, Diamondbacks 5

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