Can the Texans Rise in the AFC South? Dissecting Texans Betting Win/Loss Season Odds

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Heading into NFL training camps, the Houston Texans are the longest shot on the board to win the Super Bowl. Houston, no doubt, is in rebuild mode. But the Texans have pieces that make them a possible surprise team. Will Houston win more than 4 games this season? Or will the Texans go under their 2022-2023 win loss total? See below for an analysis as well as a NFL Team Totals Betting prediction for the Houston Texans. 

Houston Texans Win/Loss Total Prediction for the 2022 Season | NFL Betting

2022-23 NFL Regular Season

When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023
Houston Texans Total Win / Loss Total Odds: 4 ½ 

Why the Houston Texans will win more than 4 games

The key for any NFL team is who plays the quarterback position. Houston’s starting quarterback, Davis Mills, has the making of one of the better starters in the league.

Mills completed close to 67% of his passes during his rookie season. He threw more TDs, 16, than he threw interceptions, 10. Granted, Davis doesn’t have the weapons that the other teams in the AFC South possess, but the win total is just 4 ½ games.

Also, Houston’s defense should be much better because first round pick corner Derek Stingley Jr. is a difference maker. Add in offensive guard Kenyon Green, another first round pick, and the Texans could surprise. 

Why the Houston Texans won’t win more than 4 games

The schedule is brutal. The AFC South plays the AFC West, the best division in football, and the underrated NFC East.

Houston shouldn’t beat the Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, or Chiefs. The Texans shouldn’t beat the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles. The Washington Commanders and New York Giants won’t be easy victories.

No doubt, Houston is the worst team in their division. The Titans and Colts should sweep the Texans. Even the Jaguars will be better than Houston.

Road games versus Chicago and Miami should be losses. Based on the schedule the Texans will have trouble winning 2 games, much less 4. 

Final Betting Analysis: Will the Houston Texans win at least 5 games?

The schedule is tough, yes, but the Texans will be much better in 2022 than they were in 2021. The key for Houston is for the offensive line to gel.

Laremy Tunsil is a solid tackle. If Kenyon Green and Tunsil get their communication down, the pair will lead one of the more underrated offensive lines in the NFL. 

Marlon Mack is a good running back. So if Green and Tunsil are on the same page, Mack will have holes to run through.

Not only that, but Houston drafted John Metchie III. The Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver would have gone in the first round if he hadn’t suffered an injury in the CFP win against Cincinnati.

The defense has holes. But if the defense can play stout in at least 5 games, Mills and the offense should do enough. We must also take into account that many teams on Houston’s schedule won’t take them seriously. 

So the Texans will surprise with how tough of a rushing attack and how good Mills is. Over 4 ½ is the best play. 

Houston Texans Win-Loss Total Pick: Over 4 ½

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One of the most intriguing teams this upcoming NFL Season are the Houston Texans. The Texans recently said they’d field offers for in trouble quarterback Deshaun Watson. But although the Texans want to move Watson, there’s a chance Deshaun continues playing for Houston. Will Watson’s presence, or lack thereof, affect the Houston Texans’ win total for the new NFL Season? Let’s try to answer that question so you can plan your bets against their NFL Team Totals odds.

Houston Texans Win/Loss Betting Odds and Prediction for the 2021-22 Season

2021 NFL Season

When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022

Houston Texans Win Totals

Over 4 / Under 4

How will the Texans’ NFL schedule affect their win total based on Watson playing or not?

Houston landed the National Football League’s fifteenth toughest schedule. In addition to playing their usual AFC South Division opponents, the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston must play the NFC West and NFC East. 

The Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets are on the schedule. So are the San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Arizona. 

Whether Watson plays or not, the schedule is brutal. The Bills and Dolphins are playoff contenders. As are the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals. In their own division, the Titans and Colts should also challenge for a playoff spot. 

What are the games Houston should win?

If everything goes right for the Houston Texans, they could, possibly, sweep the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 and Week 15.

The Texans should have a shot versus the New York Jets in Week 12. Again, this has nothing to do with whether Deshaun Watson plays for the Houston Texans or not.

Why? As good as Watson is, former general manager and coach, Bill O’Brien, gutted the team well before Watson’s issues developed. The Texans are an awful team because of what O’Brien did before skating out of town to become the offensive coordinator with the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

O’Brien traded the best wide receiver in the league, DeAndre Hopkins, for a running back coming off an injury. That’s all we must know about how awful O’Brien left the Texans before taking the stint in Tuscaloosa. 

What are the games the Texans will most likely lose?

Houston should lose a lot of games. Watson’s value is much worse now than it was before the 20 or so lawsuits. So trading Deshaun won’t yield much in return. 

Here’s a list of all the games the Texans should lose. 

Based on the above, the Texans should lose 14-of-17 NFL contests this season. 

Final Analysis: Will the Houston Texans over or under the 4 win total?

You probably already know that based on our analysis, the Texans should win just 3 games this season, which means Houston will go under the total.

There’s a good chance that Houston doesn’t win a single game in the 2021-2022 NFL Season. The Texans are a mess of a franchise. O’Brien destroyed the team. Watson’s supposed egregiousness makes him unfit to trade for a high-value pick or a suitable replacement player.

The Texans are likely to start a second-string or third-strong quarterback in every game this season. Expect Houston to be in a battle with themselves for next year’s top pick. 

Houston has the inside edge for toilet bowl honors over teams like the Lions and Jets because they lack talent on both sides of the ball. The Lions have a legit starting quarterback, Jared Goff, under center. 

The Jets drafted Zach Wilson. So NYJ is already on their way to rebuilding. 

Seahawks Total Pick: Under 4

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Despite winning 11 games to claim the AFC South crown a year ago, Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt and the rest of the Houston Texans failed to live up to their status as one of the preseason favorites in the AFC to reach Super Bowl 53. After getting bounced out of the postseason by AFC South division rival Indianapolis despite playing at home no less, Watson and company will enter the 2019 campaign with one goal in mind – reaching Super Bowl 54.

Can the gifted Watson put it all together to lead the Texans to new heights? Will Watt and fellow superstar defensive end Jadeveon Clowney both remain relatively healthy to give Houston their best shot? Is this the final year of the Bill O’Brien era?

If you’re an NFL fan and betting enthusiast and you’ve got questions about just how many games the Texans are going to win in 2019 so you could potentially cash in on the value-packed NFL Win Total Odds, then consider your ticket punched!

Thanks to the expert NFL predictions that you’re about to get on each and every game on Houston’s upcoming 2019 docket, you’re going to have a great idea of just how many games the Texans will win this coming season.

Houston finished the 2018 regular season ranked a solid eighth in rushing, but just 17th in passing as Deshaun Watson failed to regain the form he showed in his rookie season while returning from a torn ACL in his debut season and Houston did still finish 11th in scoring (25.1 ppg). Defensively, the Texans were expected to be elite last season, but that never fully materialized as the Texans ranked a stupendous third against the run, but a stunningly awful 28th against the pass. Despite their struggles trying to defend the pass, Houston finished an excellent fourth in points allowed (19.8 ppg).

To address their offseason needs, the Texans drafted Alabama State offensive lineman Tytus Howard with the 23rd overall pick in the draft before adding Kentucky cornerback Lonnie Johnson with the 22nd pick of the second round and Northern Illinois offensive tackle Max Scharping one pick later.

In addition to that, Houston also added former Jaguars safety Tashaun Gipson, former Broncos cornerback Bradley Roby, former Browns tight end Darren Fells and former Raiders backup quarterback A.J. McCarron in free agency.

Houston Texans 2019 NFL Season Win/Loss Total Odds & Prediction

Week 1 at New Orleans

I like Houston a lot heading into 2019, but the Texans aren’t going into New Orleans to beat Drew Brees and the Saints in their home opener. Loss. 0-1.

Week 2 vs. Jacksonville

The Texans beat the Jags twice last season, but they’ll have a more difficult time repeating that sweep in 2019 now that Nick Foles is under center in the Sunshine State. Still, Houston manages to get this win at home as part of what looks like a split with the Jags. 1-1.

Week 3 at L.A. Chargers

Houston recorded a decent 5-3 road record a year ago, but the Chargers went an identical 5-3 at home in 2018 and that leads me to believe that Philip Rivers and company are going to take care of business at home in this matchup of AFC Super Bowl hopefuls. Loss. 1-2.

Week 4 vs. Carolina

Watson out-duels Cam Newton to lead the Texans to the hard-fought inter-conference win. 2-2.

Week 5 vs. Atlanta

This Week 5 matchup is another contest against a team that is eerily identical to Houston in terms of talent and Super Bowl legitimacy. I like the Texans to take care of business at NRG Stadium. Win. 3-2.

Week 6 at Kansas City

While I expecting the Chiefs to feel the losses of Kareem Hunt and likely, Tyreek Hill, I still have the Chiefs holding it down at Arrowhead Stadium in a thriller as Patrick Mahomes outguns Deshaun Watson. 3-3.

Week 7 at Indianapolis

The Texans and Colts split their two regular season meetings with each franchise winning by a field goal on the other’s home turf. This time around, both AFC South rivals win at home…by a field goal! Loss. 3-4.

Week 8 vs. Oakland

The Raiders are ion the beginning stages of a massive rebuild and they’re not good enough or mature enough to beat Houston on the road in Week 8. Win. 4-4.

Week 9 at Jacksonville

Split, split , split. Houston falls to Nick Foles’ magic. Loss. 4-5.

Week 10 BYE

Week 11 at Baltimore

I’m going with the elusive Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore defense that was phenomenal last season, to narrowly get past Deshaun Watson in a matchup of fleet-footed quarterbacks we should be watching for years to come! Loss. 4-6.

Week 12 vs. Indianapolis

Remember, Houston wins in Week 12 to both, snap a two-game skid and get the regular season split against the Colts. Win. 5-6.

Week 13 vs. New England

Watson has fought the good fight in two career losses against Tom Brady and the Patriots, including last season’s 27-20 Week 1 road loss. Unfortunately for the Texans, I expect the Patriots to be playing some great football at this late juncture of the season and that means Brady will get the best of Watson again. Loss. 5-7.

Week 14 vs. Denver

If Joe Flacco and Case Keenum were one player they still wouldn’t be better than Deshaun Watson.  Houston gets in done in a street fight! Win 6-7.

Week 15 at Tennessee

These two AFC South division rivals split their two regular season meetings a year ago with each with at home and I’m fully expecting the same in 2019. 7-7.

Week 16 at Tampa Bay

Say it ain’t so…Jameis Winston outplays Watson? Yes he does, thanks mostly to the arrival of no-nonsense head coach Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay. Loss. 7-8.

Week 17 vs. Tennessee

Houston wins to get the regular season split and avoid a losing record in what will almost assuredly be Bill O’Brien’s last season at the helm!

Use some caution on Houston. The Texans have a difficult win total figure that could go either way NFL betting faithful.

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With the 2018 NFL Betting action just around the corner, it’s time to start looking at what each team might deliver in the new season. There are some teams that we know will be good, while there are others who are more than likely going to be very bad. There are also going to be a few who fall somewhere in the middle, and whose season go tip in either direction depending on a number of different factors.

The Houston Texans probably fit into that latter category. This is a team that has been good defensively for a few years but who were missing a franchise QB. They appeared to have landed that QB last season with the drafting of DeShaun Watson, but a season-ending injury puts an end to what was a very promising start to his career. Can he rebound and take the Texans to the playoffs? MyBookie Sportsbook has the Texans win total for 2018 set at O/U 9 games.

NFL Betting Prediction for Texans 2018 Win/Loss Record

Week by Week Analysis

Games for Weeks 1-4

The Texans have a tough start to the season, opening up with a pair of road games at New England at Tennessee. Getting a win at Foxboro is always tough, but they would certainly have a shot at getting a win versus the Titans. I like them to go 1-1 to start the season. Week 3 sees Houston finally head home with a game against the New York Giants, which is one they should almost certainly win. They follow that up with another road game, this time in Indianapolis versus the Colts, which is another game they should win. Best case scenario after 4 games would be a 3-1 record, while anything less than 2-2 would be disastrous.

Games for Weeks 5-8

The Texans will be in prime-time on Sunday night in Week 5, at home to the Dallas Cowboys. That is a game that is there for the taking, and I like them to win that one, as well as their Week 6 match-up against the Bills at home. Another tough road game follows that one, which is a trip to Jacksonville to face that brutal Jaguars D. I see a loss there, but I also see the Texans bouncing right back with a win at home against the Miami Dolphins. By the end of Week 8, we could be looking at 6-2 or 5-3.

Games for Weeks 9-13

Houston will be in Denver in Week 9 before hitting their bye week, and while this will be a tough one, it’s a game I think they can win. Week 11 is a tricky one, with a road trip to Washington on tap. The Redskins could be better with Alex Smith at QB, making this a game Houston might potentially lose.

The Titans come to town in Week 12 in what could be a crucial division game. Next up is a bit of a gimme game against the Browns. Let’s take the Texans to win that one and go to 9-3 on the season.

Games for Weeks 14-17

The Texans have the Colts and Jets up after the Browns, both of which are very winnable games. They finish up the season with a trip to The Eagles, which I see as a loss, and a home game against the Jags, which may well be for division supremacy. Let’s take a split in those final two games, which would take the Texans to 11-5 and OVER the 9 games.

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It is hard to sit and wait for the start of the 2016 NFL regular season, but some of us are already looking to kick off the 2016 wagering campaign in advance and make some NFL future bets. Thanks to the expert analysis and futures bet predictions you’re about to get on six 2016 Houston Texans regular season games, you’re going to have a great chance to cash in a whopping half-dozen times! Okay, with that said, let’s get started.

Reviewing Houston Texans’ Top NFL Spreads of the Season

Week 4

Tennessee Titans at Houston (-7)

Analysis: I know the Houston Texans got beaten like a bunch of rag dolls in their 30-6 home playoff loss against Kansas City to conclude their 2016 season, but prior to that defeat, Houston had won four of five at home while covering the NFL betting line in each SU victory. Not only that but the Texans have made a habit out of pounding the snot out of Tennessee in recent times, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings against their AFC South division rivals and an insane 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in the L/10 meetings overall. Houston’s last four wins against Tennessee have all come by double digits and I like his one to play out the same way.

The Pick: Houston 31 Tennessee 21

Week 6

Indianapolis Colts at Houston (-1.5)

Analysis After dropping six straight games against their division rivals, Houston managed to beat Indianapolis in their final regular season meeting a year ago while covering the spread as a 2-point home fave. For this matchup, I like the simple pick of backing the Texans at home. Maybe it’s me, but I can already see J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney pounding Andrew Luck into the turf en route to the narrow field goal win.

The Pick: Houston 24 Indianapolis 21

Week 7

Houston at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Analysis: The defending Super Bowl champion Broncos are going to pay the price in 2016 for not overpaying former signal-caller Brock Osweiler. With veteran Mark Sanchez likely playing his best brand of mediocre football for Denver this coming season, I say the storyline is perfectly set for Osweiler to get his revenge against John Elway and company. Besides, with these two AFC title hopefuls alternating SU and ATS wins and losses over the last five meetings and the Texans losing the last matchup back in 2013, the stage is set for the Texans to win and cash in!

The Pick: Houston 21 Denver 17

Week 13

Houston at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Analysis: I know the Green Bay Packers are playing a home in this contest and that they’re looking to get back to being a legitimate Super Bowl title contender after an injury-riddled 2015 campaign, but I like Houston to cover the NFL betting line as a touchdown road dog because of their powerful pass rush and generally excellent defense.

The Texans have won half of their last 10 road games outright while going 5-4-1 ATS over the span. With Green Bay going 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four home games, I like Houston to get the ATS cover in a narrow loss.

The Pick: Green Bay 28 Houston 24

Week 12

San Diego Chargers at Houston (-4.5)

Analysis: I won’t write much about the Texans as far as this Week 12 contest is concerned, but I will say that Philip Rivers and the San Diego have been absolutely awful on the road recently. The Bolts lost seven of their eight road games in 2015, but they’ve also compiled a mind-boggling 6-4 ATS mark in their last half-dozen road contests. Of course, San Diego was a double-digit road dog in half of those contests so they should have covered if you ask me. This time around, the Bolts get handed a humbling road loss and they narrowly fail to cover the NFL betting line.

The Pick: Houston 27 San Diego 21

Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston (-4.5)

Analysis: I like what Jacksonville did in free agency and the NFL Draft this offseason and I expect them to improve a bit on their 2015 campaign, but they’re not the pick to win or cover the NFL betting line is this Week 15 AFC South divisional matchup. Houston is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against Jacksonville and 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. While the Texans are just 3-3 ATS over the last six, they did manage to cover the NFL betting line as a 5.5-point home fave in the second of their two regular season meetings a year ago and I expect them to do the same in this late season matchup as they try to secure a spot in the AFC playoffs. The Texans win and cash in as my final NFL futures bet predictions pick.

The Pick: Houston 30 Jacksonville 20