New England Patriots 2018 Postseason Betting Analysis

New England Patriots 2018 Postseason Betting Analysis

Written by on January 5, 2018

The New England Patriots are once again in the NFL playoffs and are once again the Postseason Betting favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LII. The defending champions saw their defense of the crown get off to the worst start imaginable, getting totally dominated at home by the Kansas City Chiefs. It felt as though we were witnessing a changing of the guard, and there were some whispers that perhaps Tom Brady was all washed up at 40 years of age. That opening week loss now seems like a distant memory when you consider what the Patriots have delivered since then. They are favorites to win the Super Bowl at odds of +160, and all signs seem to be pointing to Tom Brady as the MVP. Let’s look at the road they may need to travel to get to another championship game.

New England Patriots 2018 Postseason Betting Analysis

  • Odds to win AFC: -170
  • Odds to win Super Bowl LII: +160

AFC Divisional Round

The Patriots had a huge, albeit controversial, win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, which all but secured an opening round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. New England will get a chance to rest up this week, but you can be sure that Bill Belichick and his coaching staff will be busy studying film of all the other teams taking part in Wild Card Weekend. In the Divisional Round, the Patriots will face either the Tennessee Titans or the Kansas City Chiefs, with my money being on KC to come out of that game. If it is indeed the Chiefs who move on, they will certainly head to Foxboro for the Divisional Round with a high level of confidence, knowing that they have already gone in there and won this season. Doing it once is great, but pulling off that same feat twice may well prove to be close to impossible.

AFC Championship Round

Assuming that the Patriots get past the Titans or the Chiefs, their most likely opponents in the AFC Championship Game would be either the Jacksonville Jaguars or Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jags should take out the Bills in the Wild Card, after which they would need to head to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that they dominated there earlier this season. Again, winning on the road against one of the best teams in the league twice is a tall order. Once again, the Patriots are favored by the Postseason Betting Odds to win it all. The smart money has the Pittsburgh Steelers heading into Foxboro to face the Patriots for a spot in the Super Bowl, and most impartial football fans would certainly hope that this is the game we get. The Steelers felt that they were robbed of a win in their earlier meeting with the Patriots, so expect them to go in there with a point to prove and the personnel to make that point.

Do the Patriots Win the Super Bowl?

New England may be the favorites heading into the postseason, but they have an incredibly tough path to get there. I have felt from the start of the season that this was going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers year, and I am not about to change that opinion now. Even if the Patriots move on to the big game, they are going to be facing a very good NFC opponent, regardless of which team comes out from that side. The NFC has been great this year, and when you take that combines with the road that the Patriots need to take, I would bet someone other than New England to win it all, despite what the future Postseason Betting Odds might say.
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