Top NFL Week 4 Betting Picks You Shouldn’t Let Pass
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami DolphinsWhen: Sunday, 9:30 AM ET Where: Wembley Stadium, London TV: Fox Radio: WWL 870 AM (New Orleans) / 560 WQAM (Miami) Opening NFL Lines: Saints -2.5
Why Bet On New Orleans?The Saints pulled an upset Sunday, winning 34-13 at Carolina for their first win. Quarterback Drew Brees tossed three touchdown passes (Michael Thomas, Brandon Coleman and Ted Ginn Jr.), the defense sacked Carolina quarterback Cam Newton four times and forced its first three turnovers of the season. Carolina entered the game as the NFL’s top defense leading in total yards allowed, passing average, first downs allowed and points allowed. The Saints led 17-6 when Ginn beat cornerback James Bradberry down the middle of the field for a 40-yard touchdown reception to break it open. Brees has thrown for 1,252 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions in his last four games against the Panthers. Thomas had five catches for 50 yards and his first touchdown of the season on New Orleans’ opening drive after being bottled up by defenses paying extra attention to him during the first two weeks. He finished with seven catches for 87 yards. Rookie Alvin Kamara had his first NFL touchdown on a 25-yard run late in the game. And Adrian Peterson had a season-high 33 yards on nine carries (including a season-long 11-yard run). It wasn’t a perfect performance by New Orleans’ defense, which allowed rookie running back Christian McCaffrey to catch nine passes for 101 yards. But it was a game-changer after the Saints’ defense allowed more than 1,000 yards and 65 points in the first two weeks. Saints defensive ends Cam Jordan, Hau’oli Kikaha, Trey Hendrickson and Alex Okafor each had a sack while cornerback P.J. Williams had a second quarter interception on very nice play. Rookie safety Marcus Williams added another interception in the fourth quarter on a one-handed snag and veteran safety Kenny Vaccaro had a pick in the fourth quarter. They were the team’s first forced turnovers this season. The Saints will get WR Willie Snead IV back for the Dolphins game as his three-game suspension is over.
Why Bet On Miami?The Dolphins (1-1) looked awful Sunday in losing at the terrible Jets, 20-6. New York just missed having its first shutout since blanking Cincinnati 37-0 on Jan. 13, 2010. Jay Cutler threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to DeVante Parker on the final play. Cody Parkey missed the extra point, capping a miserable day for Miami in 88-degree heat at MetLife Stadium. Cutler was 26 of 44 for 220 yards with an interception and the TD toss. Miami was outgained in total yards 336-225. “They just beat the (heck) out of us,” coach Adam Gase said. “That’s the best way to put it. We didn’t show up, didn’t play physical.” The Dolphins have two offensive touchdowns in their first two games. It’s early, but Gase must reassess how to get this group jump-started and headed in the right direction. Cutler said the offense became one dimensional and that made it tough to produce. Jarvis Landry caught 6-of-11 targets for 48 yards. After a 13-catch, 15-target Week 1, Cutler couldn’t get the ball to his slot guy in this loss. Last week, Landry led NFL receivers in average yards of separation at target, but he was covered fairly well against a group of subpar cornerbacks. Jay Ajayi rushed 11 times for 16 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for nine receiving yards. Ajayi did suffer an injury in the first half, but it looked like it was just a hit below the belt and that’s likely not the reason he struggled so much. This game got away from the Dolphins, so the game script explains why Ajayi only saw 13 touches following his 30 touches in Week 2.
Latest NFL Week 4 Betting Trends
- New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
- New Orleans is 2-4 SU in the last 6 games on the road
- The total went OVER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games
- Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games at home
- Miami is 10-4 SU in the last 14 games
- The total went OVER in 9 of Miami’s last 13 games
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta FalconsWhen: Sunday, 1 PM ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta TV: CBS Radio: WCMF 96.5 FM (Buffalo) / 92.9 FM The Game (Atlanta) Stream Option: DirecTV to Go Opening NFL Week 4 Lines: Falcons -8
Why Bet On Atlanta?The Falcons (3-0) aren’t suffering from any Super Bowl curse yet as they lead the NFC South. They won at previously unbeaten Detroit 30-26 on Sunday. Matt Ryan completed 24-of-35 passes for 294 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Ryan’s first pick was an incredible pick-six by Glover Quin right before halftime. It was Ryan’s first interception in his last 309 attempts, and the three-interception game overall was his first since November 2015. The third pick came on a drop by the typically sure-handed Mohamed Sanu, whose 0.8 drop percentage per target over the last two seasons was the best rate among all receivers who had played in 20-plus games. Devonta Freeman rushed 21 times for 106 yards and one touchdown. Julio Jones caught 7-of-12 targets for 91 yards. Jones remains without a touchdown after three games. Ryan tried to get him one on a deep ball where Jones got behind the defense, but the safety was able to close on the pass and knock it away in the end zone. He thought the Lions had just scored the go-ahead touchdown with seconds left in Sunday’s game when Matthew Stafford found Golden Tate. He even huddled with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian about how to get down the field with eight seconds remaining in regulation and down 33-30. Then the officials reviewed the play, reversed the touchdown, and ran 10 seconds off the clock.
Why Bet On Buffalo?The Bills (2-1) upset Denver 26-16 on Sunday. With running back LeSean McCoy bottled up for a second straight week, the Bills leaned on Tyrod Taylor’s efficient passing attack and an opportunistic defense. Taylor completed 20 of 26 for 213 yards and two touchdowns. The defense closed the victory by forcing the Broncos to turn over the ball on each of their final four possessions with two interceptions and two fourth-down stops. The Bills bounced back from a 9-3 loss at Carolina in which their offense was stuck in neutral with McCoy limited to 9 yards rushing. Their defense finally generated turnovers, something it failed to do against the Panthers. E.J. Gaines and rookie Tre’Davious White each intercepted Trevor Siemian. Then there were Buffalo’s two fourth-down stops. The Bills’ most impressive achievement Sunday was their offense’s ability to move the ball against a Denver defense with a reputation of being among the fiercest in the league. The Broncos entered Sunday allowing 1.58 points per drive, the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Bills put up 2.58 points per drive, scoring on six of their 11 possessions before the final kneeldowns. McCoy caught seven passes for 48 yards but was largely shut down as a runner, gaining 21 yards on 14 carries.
Latest NFL Week 4 Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 4-7-2 ATS in the last 13 games
- Buffalo is 1-5 SU in the last 6 games on the road
- The total went OVER in 11 of Buffalo’s last 15 games
- Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games
- Atlanta is 9-1 SU in the last 10 games
- The total went OVER in 11 of Atlanta’s last 12 games