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Decoding the MLB Lines: Expert Offers Reds vs Red Sox Betting Pick with Analysis

Decoding the MLB Lines: Expert Offers Reds vs Red Sox Betting Pick with Analysis

The hottest team in the American League is the Boston Red Sox, as they bring a five-game winning streak into Cincinnati on Friday in a series opener between wild-card hopefuls in their respective leagues.

The Red Sox are short favorites on the MLB odds, according to MyBookie Sportsbook.

MLB Odds: Red Sox -112, Reds -102 (total 9)
Score Prediction: Reds 5, Red Sox 4
 

Boston Red Sox Betting Lines -109

The Red Sox are on a five-game winning streak, tying their season high. They completed a three-game sweep in Toronto on Wednesday with a 7-3 win.

It was the Sox’s fourth sweep of the season and third straight series win. The Blue Jays were swept for the first time this season.

Jarren Duran went 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI and two steals on Wednesday. He hit a solo home run off Kevin Gausman in the fifth inning, then added an RBI single and a steal in the sixth. He later stole another base after reaching on a fielder’s choice in the eighth.

Duran extended his hitting streak to 10 games and has hit .356 with three homers and eight steals in June. On the season, he is hitting .277 with six home runs and 19 steals, hitting leadoff for the Red Sox.

He hit five home runs this season. These home runs either tied the game or gave the Sox the lead. This hitting streak is the longest of his career. This hitting streak is the longest of his career.

Enmanuel Valdez went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and three runs scored. Valdez hit a solo home run off Gausman in the fourth inning, walked and scored in the sixth, then singled and scored in the eighth.

Valdez has been hot in June, hitting .341 with 10 extra-base hits and 14 RBI in 44 at-bats. He rarely plays against left-handed pitchers, going 0-for-20 against them on the season, but he is hitting.252 with six homers and 25 RBI in 115 at-bats against righties.

Chris Martin returned from his stint on the injured list and took the mound Wednesday for the first time since May 30. The Red Sox reliever recorded a scoreless inning to finish the game. Boston improved to 32-4 this year when leading after six innings.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu will be back with the team this weekend.

The 24-year-old played the outfield on Wednesday evening at Triple-A Worcester and homered twice, and then was at DH on Thursday.

The team hasn’t yet decided whether Abreu will return on Friday or Saturday. Abreu went on the injured list on June 4 (retroactive to June 3) after spraining his right ankle in a freak accident on the dugout steps. In 53 games for the Red Sox this season, he has a .272/.344/.485 slash line with six home runs, 22 RBIs and seven stolen bases, plus some impressive defense.

It’s righty Kutter Crawford on the mound Friday. Crawford (3-6) allowed three runs on three hits and a walk while striking out nine over six innings to earn the win last Sunday over the Yankees.

Crawford had given up at least four runs in five of his last six starts, but he was able to turn in a strong performance against the AL’s best team. He allowed solo home runs to Aaron Judge and Jose Trevino, but Crawford’s nine strikeouts were a season high, and he snapped a four-start losing streak.

He has a 3.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 88:26 K:BB through 86.1 innings over 15 starts this season. Crawford’s cutter has been his most-used pitch this season. He’s throwing it 32.8% of the time, which represents a career-high rate. Crawford has pitched two-thirds of an inning career vs. the Reds, allowing one run and two walks in relief.

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines -112

The Reds are last in the NL Central at 35-39 but very much in a wide-open NL wild-card race, plus Cincinnati has a plus-19 run differential, which means it should have a better record.

The offense has gone rather quiet of late as the Reds have dropped four of five and have totaled just eight runs in those five games after being shut out 1-0 in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The Reds’ past six games have featured five games decided by two or fewer runs, including a pair of one-run games.

The Reds held outfielder and leadoff hitter TJ Friedl out of the lineup for a second straight day Wednesday after he tweaked his hamstring while making a spectacular catch on Monday night. Stuart Fairchild started in center field for Friedl and went 0-for-2 with a walk.

Third baseman Jeimer Candelario also missed the final two games of the Pirates series with unspecified tendinitis. Reds manager David Bell said that Candelario isn’t at any major risk of landing on the injured list, so it sounds as if he will play Friday.

The Reds’ relievers have been solid on the whole all month, with the sixth-best ERA in MLB (2.59) in June. They were in command in the entire series vs. the Pirates, but one mistake Wednesday resulted in the loss. Nick Martinez allowed only the second hit the Reds’ bullpen had afforded in the meager 5 2/3 innings it had to cover in the series. Unfortunately, it became a homer for Bryan Reynolds that landed in the bullpen in the eighth inning.

The Reds have stolen 107 bases in 2024, most in the majors, and are on pace to steal 233 bases, which would rank fifth in club history. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz leads the majors with 37 steals, already two more than all of last season. He’s also tied with Candelario for the team lead with 12 homers.

It’s promising young lefty Andrew Abbott on the hill Friday. Abbott (5-6) took the loss against Milwaukee last Saturday, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks while striking out three batters over five innings.

Abbott navigated around many baserunners to keep the Brewers off the scoreboard for four innings, but he put himself in quick danger by walking the first two batters in the fifth.

That came back to hurt him in a big way when Joey Ortiz hit a change up for a three-run homer, accounting for all the runs Abbott surrendered in the outing.

As is typical, Abbott didn’t get many whiffs, with just six whiffs on 43 swings for a 14 percent whiff rate and 22 percent CSW. However, he also didn’t allow much harder contact, with just an 82.3 mph average exit velocity allowed.

The Boston Red Sox are currently the best team in the American League with a five-game winning streak. They will play against Cincinnati on Friday, both teams hoping to secure a spot in the playoffs.

But it was Abbott’s second straight start of five frames, after he went at least six innings in four consecutive outings between May 15 and June 3. Abbott has fared well this season overall with a 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, though his 60:25 K:B over 79 innings. He is holding opponents to a .232/.293/.427 slash line.

This will be Abbott’s first career start vs. Boston.

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Bet Red Sox at Reds MLB Odds

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Great American Ball Park
Pitchers (away/home): Kutter Crawford/Andrew Abbott
TV: MLB Extra Innings; NESN

 
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