We are heading into the homestretch of the college football season, with the majority of teams now having just 2 or 3 games left on their schedule.

That is not a lot of time to make a move, especially for those teams sitting outside the top 12 looking in.

My NCAAF Betting Analysis

The final 3 weeks of the season are going to be huge, as are the Conference Championship games, as those will dictate the teams that head into the first ever 12-team playoff.

The bookies have their ideas of who they believe will get in and win it all, but before we get to that, let’s take a look at the current top 12:

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Texas Longhorns
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Indiana Hoosiers
6. BYU Cougars
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
11. Ole Miss Rebels
12. Georgia Bulldogs

POLL ALERT: Oregon remains No. 1 in AP Top 25 ahead of Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Indiana; Georgia and Miami out of top 10.

Full poll: https://t.co/7dTTUiSC1j pic.twitter.com/biTXKQK6rm

— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) November 10, 2024

There are definitely some surprises in that current top 12, but the chances of the current rankings remaining the same after the final few weeks of the season are slim to none, especially when you will have some of these teams going head-to-head with one another before all is said and done.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top 3 teams on the bookies board and their remaining games. Once we have done that, we will talk about a few teams that could upset the apple cart and make a run at a National Championship.

Ohio State Buckeyes +330

For a team that is expected to be in the National Championship conversation every single season, the last few years have been disappointing to say the least. The Buckeyes have 3 games remaining on their schedule, including a tricky one against another team currently sitting in the top 5. Their remaining schedule looks like this:

• At Northwestern Wildcats
• Vs Indiana Hoosiers
• Vs Michigan Wolverines

“In November you gotta play your best football game. This is the playoffs and everything is on the line here. Our opportunity to get to Indianapolis is on the line this week and we are playing in November. We have to play our best football in November, so I am expecting just like… pic.twitter.com/87TgWcnJjx

— Ohio State Buckeyes 🌰 (@OhioStAthletics) November 14, 2024

This weekend certainly looks like a lock, but that game against Indiana looms large, as a loss there would likely mean that the Buckeyes would not be in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their loss to Oregon is by no means one that can be considered poor in the eyes of the Playoff Committee, and I would be stunned if the Buckeyes are not in the final 12, unless of course they lose a couple of those final 3 games. Let’s not forget that while this is a down season for Michigan, that rivalry game has a way of delivering the unexpected.

Oregon Ducks +370

There are certainly plenty of fans and pundits who will argue that the Ducks have had an easier schedule than a good portion of the current top 12, as they have only had 2 games against ranked teams. All they can do is play the schedule ahead of them and continue to win in convincing style, which they have certainly been doing to this point. Their chances of an unbeaten regular season look good, as both of their remaining games look very winnable indeed, and those games are:

• At Wisconsin Badgers
• Vs Washington Huskies

Focused on consistency. #GoDucks x #QuackMinute pic.twitter.com/CJm6gf03mG

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) November 13, 2024

I think the chances of the Ducks ending the season at 12-0 are very good indeed, which would put them in the Big Ten Championship Game, likely with a repeat game against Ohio State, or perhaps a matchup with Indiana. At this point, I think they have done enough to make the playoffs, but can they go all the way? They will have some tough games ahead of them, but at these odds, they are a very tempting pick.

Texas Longhorns +470

This has been an excellent season for the Texas Longhorns, who appear to have adapted to life in the SEC rather nicely. They have lost just once this season, with that one coming at home to the Georgia Bulldogs, so no great shame there. That loss could have sent them spiraling, but this team has rebounded nicely with back-to-back wins that has them in very good shape in the SEC West. They still have some challenges ahead of them in the final weeks, with their schedule looking like this:

• At Arkansas Razorbacks
• Vs Kentucky Wildcats
• At Texas A&M Aggies

Quinn Ewers has been named a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Player of the Year award 🤘@QuinnEwers x @WalterCampFF pic.twitter.com/WSVtcXYCyF

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 13, 2024

This is a schedule that looks pretty manageable for the Longhorns, but going on the road in the final game of the season against a ranked Aggies team could be what decides which of those teams goes to the SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns still look like a good bet to make it to the final four, which would mean an opening round bye in the playoffs, but they will be well aware that there is still some hard work to be done before they get there.

Other Teams to Consider

There are a lot of huge games in the final few weeks of the season, but there are perhaps none bigger than the one coming this weekend that will see Georgia and Tennessee square off. This could prove to be the game that decides which of these two teams goes to the SEC Championship Game. If Tennessee (+2300) wins, they could certainly be in a position to land in the top 4.

For Georgia (+820), this is for all intents and purposes an elimination game. There is probably no way into the playoffs for this team if they pick up their 3rd loss of the season. The fact that the bookies still have the Bulldogs so high on the board is a sure sign that they feel this team is still in it.

We do need to also talk about the Penn State Nittany Lions (+2300), who are not getting a ton of love even though they are currently ranked in the top 4. They have 3 games remaining against non-ranked opposition, as well as a shot at a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. If they can win out, those odds will shorten, so now might be the time to get in with the Nittany Lions if you believe they can win it all.

🌹🚨SPOILER ALERT🚨🌹

This postseason, tune in for the most dramatic College Football Playoff ever…#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆@ABCNetwork • #GoldenBachelorette • @ESPN • @ESPNPR • @JessePalmerTV pic.twitter.com/ejm018WOzi

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 14, 2024

NCAA Football Betting Center

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