NBA Conference Finals Deep Betting Analysis: And then there was 4. The NBA Playoffs are nearing an end, as we are now down to the Conference Finals.
There have been plenty of surprises along the way, as can be seen by the seeds that are remaining.
My Analysis
It has been a tough go of things for the teams expected to go far, with just 1 of the top 4 seeds making it to the final four. It’s probably no real surprise that the Boston Celtics are the highest seeded team remaining, as they basically started the season as the favorite to win it all, while very much living up to the hype to this point. As much as the majority of fans thinks it is the Celtics title to lose, surprises have been par for the course in this postseason. With that on mind, let’s take a look at the two conference finals.
^NBA Western Conference Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
This is easily the least predictable of the two series, which is not that surprising when you consider the level of parity that we saw in the West this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves entered the playoff as the #3 seed in the West and made things look very easy in the opening round, sweeping the Phoenix Suns in 4 games. They had a much tougher task in Round 2, as they had to go against the defending champions Denver Nuggets. It went all the way to Game 7, with the T-Wolves taking it on the road. They will now have home court advantage in the Conference Final.
The Mavericks have had to work hard to get here, beating the Clippers in 6 games in Round 1 before taking out the Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games in the second round.
The bookies have the series as tight, with the Timberwolves the favorite to move on at odds of -170, while the Mavericks will start at +150. There is a very good reason why the Timberwolves are the favorites here, as they took 3 of 4 from the Mavericks in the regular season. Minnesota will have home court advantage and are 3-2 in the playoffs this season. The Mavericks are 4-2 on the road through the postseason.
NBA Playoffs Picks Winner: Timberwolves -170 vs Mavericks +150 |
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NBA Eastern Conference Odds: Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers
Are we looking at a total mismatch here, or can the Pacer spring the upset once again? The Celtics made it to this point in the season without breaking too much of a sweat. They beat the Miami Heat 4-1 in Round 1 before delivering the same result in their second round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. If there was any surprise with how they got here, it was that the 2 games they lost both came on home court, which was all the more surprising when you consider that they only lost 4 times in Boston in the regular season.
The Pacers, who are the #6 seed in the East, got past the ailing Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1, winning that series in 6 games. Their run looked to be coming to an end after going down 2-0 to the New York Knicks in Round 2. They won 4 of the next 5 to take the series in 7 games. The Pacers are just 2-5 on the road in these playoffs, which is a problem.
Boston is the clear favorite at odds of -1000, while the Pacers are a big longshot at +610.
NBA Playoffs Picks Winner: Celtics -1000 vs Pacers +610 |
Luka, DJJ, and Kyrie were crucial in the Mavs advancing to the Western Conference Finals 👏
— NBA (@NBA) May 20, 2024
Hear them sign out after their huge Game 6 win 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/Com0VLH9kj
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