Given that we are barely a week into the new NBA season, it would be a brave soul that would start making major predictions at this stage of the proceedings.
It really is tough to get a handle on teams when they have only played 2 or 3 games, but for those that love to wager on futures, now is the time to strike, as there are some odds that are probably going to be as good as they get.
My NBA Betting Analysis in the Opening Games
With that in mind, we thought it might be a good idea to look at the individual divisions, as well as the conferences as a whole, to get an idea of the current odds and to look at how things might play out.
Let’s dive in and see if we can figure out which wagers might be ones that you can act on now.
^NBA Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
I could be way off the mark, but I think this is one division where you can wager now with some real confidence.
The Boston Celtics (-206) ran away with this division, as well as the conference last season and the early signs suggest that they are starting off as they finished last year.
The New York Knicks (+255) and the Philadelphia 76ers (+800) should be in the playoff conversation, while it looks like it might be a long year for the Toronto Raptors (+55000) and the Brooklyn Nets (+55000).
I would absolutely take the Celtics to win the division now, as those odds are going to shorten quickly.
^Central Division
Yes, it’s very early in the season, but the Milwaukee Bucks (+144) are already showing signs that they might once again be a frustrating team to wager on, starting things out at 1-2.
On the flipside, the Cleveland Cavaliers (+134) have looked solid in their opening 3 games, winning all 3 to lead the East.
I also wouldn’t sleep on the Indiana Pacers (+320), despite the fact that they are out to a 1-2 start. It’s safe to predict that we can forget the Chicago Bulls (+30000) and the Detroit Pistons (+50000).
You look at the Bucks lineup and see a team that should win this division, but as it stands now, my money would be on the Cavaliers.
^Paolo Banchero was +42 on Wednesday night—the second best single-game plus-minus in Orlando Magic history, and the best in a road game.
— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) October 24, 2024
🔗 https://t.co/LKnSWFX3lt pic.twitter.com/PY3M5U1Jyb
Southeast Division
It is the Orlando Magic (-183) who are leading the way in the division in the early going, winning 2 of their first 3 games.
It’s not the greatest start in the world, but this team still looks like the best in the division to me. The Miami Heat (+238) is 1-1 to start the season, while the Atlanta Hawks (+850) are right up there with the Magic at 2-1.
The Hawks might prove to be better than expected this season, but I am not expecting too much from the Charlotte Hornets (+4600) or the Washington Wizards (+50000).
This, for me, is the toughest of the 3 divisions to predict in the Eastern Conference. I am on the Magic right now, but I could be talked out of that.
In terms of the Eastern Conference, it very much seems to me that the Boston Celtics (+138) are the team to beat once again.
They cruised to a comfortable conference win last season and look likely to repeat.
The Knicks (+390), 76ers (+540) and Bucks (+690), could potentially shake things up, but I don’t see it happening.
^NBA Western Conference
Northwest Division
The Oklahoma City Thunder (-218) is the clear favorite to win this division and are certainly living up to the hype in the early going, starting things out at 3-0.
I think we could be in for a goo battle here, as I also think the Minnesota Timberwolves (+340) are good enough to be in the conversation for the Northwest crown.
The Denver Nuggets (+610) could also make some noise, while the Utah Jazz (+55000) and Portland Trail Blazers (+55000) are likely to be battling it out for the spot in the cellar.
I’m not sure that I’m ready to make a bold declaration on the outcome of this division, but I might be tempted to take a shot on the T-Wolves.
^2024-2025 NBA Points Per Game Leaders:
— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) October 28, 2024
34.0 – Anthony Davis
34.0 – Luka Dončić
33.0 – Jayson Tatum
31.7 – LaMelo Ball
31.3 – Tyrese Maxey
All Leaders: https://t.co/pszlTbTDXh pic.twitter.com/QT5DkB3EUA
Pacific Division
This is arguably the most wide-open division in the league, in my opinion, as you could make an argument for 4 of the 5 teams in the Pacific.
The Phoenix Suns (+144) are the early favorites and are out to a 2-1 start. The Sacramento Kings(+370) are winless through their opening 2 games, but they will right the ship.
I am not totally sold on the Golden State Warriors (+390), and while the Los Angeles Lakers (+340) are out to a perfect 3-0 start, can we trust them to stay healthy all season long? The LA Clippers (+2800) are not a bad team, but they are up against it in this division.
My gut tells me that the Suns will find a way to prevail here, as they are the team I trust the most with this group.
^Southwest Division
It can be easy to get caught up in the early results and make assumptions, forgetting that this is a long season.
The Dallas Mavericks (+129) are 1-1 in the early going, but they will get in a groove and come good.
The Memphis Grizzlies (+246) will almost certainly be in the mix, while the New Orleans Pelicans (+420) could also make some noise.
The Houston Rockets (+650) are in dark horse territory at the moment, while the San Antonio Spurs (+2500) look well off what is required to win the division.
For me, the Dallas Mavericks are the team to beat here, and I would likely plop some money down on them as these odds.
Things are a little more difficult to predict when it comes to winning the Western Conference.
The Oklahoma City Thunder is the current favorite at odds of +300, but there are cases to be made for the Timberwolves (+510), Nuggets (+560), and Mavericks (+580).
It still feels like a crapshoot right now, but I am tentatively going with the Denver Nuggets.
^NBA STANDINGS UPDATE
— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2024
▪️ OKC improves to 3-0
▪️ BKN, PHI, POR get win #1
Download the NBA App for more ⤵️ https://t.co/wV1YsrFUXw pic.twitter.com/FPj6QhLdgk
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NBA Conference Finals Deep Betting Analysis: And then there was 4. The NBA Playoffs are nearing an end, as we are now down to the Conference Finals.
There have been plenty of surprises along the way, as can be seen by the seeds that are remaining.
My Analysis
It has been a tough go of things for the teams expected to go far, with just 1 of the top 4 seeds making it to the final four. It’s probably no real surprise that the Boston Celtics are the highest seeded team remaining, as they basically started the season as the favorite to win it all, while very much living up to the hype to this point. As much as the majority of fans thinks it is the Celtics title to lose, surprises have been par for the course in this postseason. With that on mind, let’s take a look at the two conference finals.
NBA Western Conference Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
This is easily the least predictable of the two series, which is not that surprising when you consider the level of parity that we saw in the West this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves entered the playoff as the #3 seed in the West and made things look very easy in the opening round, sweeping the Phoenix Suns in 4 games. They had a much tougher task in Round 2, as they had to go against the defending champions Denver Nuggets. It went all the way to Game 7, with the T-Wolves taking it on the road. They will now have home court advantage in the Conference Final.
The Mavericks have had to work hard to get here, beating the Clippers in 6 games in Round 1 before taking out the Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games in the second round.
The bookies have the series as tight, with the Timberwolves the favorite to move on at odds of -170, while the Mavericks will start at +150. There is a very good reason why the Timberwolves are the favorites here, as they took 3 of 4 from the Mavericks in the regular season. Minnesota will have home court advantage and are 3-2 in the playoffs this season. The Mavericks are 4-2 on the road through the postseason.
| NBA Playoffs Picks Winner: Timberwolves -170 vs Mavericks +150 |
NBA Eastern Conference Odds: Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers
Are we looking at a total mismatch here, or can the Pacer spring the upset once again? The Celtics made it to this point in the season without breaking too much of a sweat. They beat the Miami Heat 4-1 in Round 1 before delivering the same result in their second round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. If there was any surprise with how they got here, it was that the 2 games they lost both came on home court, which was all the more surprising when you consider that they only lost 4 times in Boston in the regular season.
The Pacers, who are the #6 seed in the East, got past the ailing Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1, winning that series in 6 games. Their run looked to be coming to an end after going down 2-0 to the New York Knicks in Round 2. They won 4 of the next 5 to take the series in 7 games. The Pacers are just 2-5 on the road in these playoffs, which is a problem.
Boston is the clear favorite at odds of -1000, while the Pacers are a big longshot at +610.
| NBA Playoffs Picks Winner: Celtics -1000 vs Pacers +610 |
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