The March Madness is almost here. The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is one of the most exciting sporting events of the year. With 64 teams competing in a single-elimination format, the first round sets the stage for upsets, dominant performances, and thrilling finishes.

Understanding how to navigate this round can add profit to your bankroll. Check out the ins and outs of the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament’s first round.

March Madness Odds: What to expect in the First Round?

When: Thursday, March 20 – Friday, March 21
Where: Various
TV/Streaming: CBS Networks/Paramount +
Favorite to Win the Tournament: Duke +350

Which teams are most likely to win in the first round?

Higher-seeded teams have a strong track record of success in the first round. No. 1 seeds have never lost to a No. 16 seed, except for one historic upset in 2018 when UMBC defeated Virginia.

No. 2 seeds also have a high success rate, but are more vulnerable to being upset by No. 15 seeds. Teams from power conferences with strong regular-season performances and balanced rosters tend to be reliable picks.

Additionally, teams with elite coaching and experienced upperclassmen often handle the pressure of March Madness better than younger squads.

How can I identify potential first round upsets?

Identifying upsets requires analyzing several key factors:

• Seeding Mismatches: No. 12 seeds have a strong history of upsetting No. 5 seeds, making these matchups worth a closer look.
• Defensive Efficiency: Underdogs with strong defensive metrics can slow down high-powered offenses and increase their chances of winning.
• Three-Point Shooting: Teams that rely heavily on three-point shooting can be dangerous underdogs if they get hot from beyond the arc.
• Momentum: Teams that have won their conference tournaments or have been on a winning streak often carry confidence into the tournament.
• Matchup Style: Certain teams struggle against pressing defenses or fast-paced offenses, making stylistic clashes a key consideration.

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What betting strategies are effective for the first round?

Several betting strategies can be effective in the first round of March Madness:

• Moneyline Favorites: Betting on higher seeds to win outright is generally a safe strategy, though the odds may not always be favorable.
• Point Spreads: Many first-round games feature large spreads. Underdogs that can keep games close or favorites that dominate early can provide strong opportunities.
• Over/Under Totals: Some teams play at a fast tempo while others prefer a slower, defensive approach. Researching tempo and scoring trends can help with totals betting.
• Live Betting: Watching games unfold can provide opportunities to take advantage of momentum shifts and in-game adjustments.

What role does bankroll management play in March Madness betting?

Proper bankroll management is crucial, especially with so many games to wager. Key principles include:

• Set a Budget: Decide how much you’re willing to wager over the course of the tournament.
• Unit Betting: Avoid betting too much on any single game by using a consistent unit size.
• Avoid Chasing Losses: If you lose a bet, stick to your strategy rather than making impulsive bets to recover losses.
• Diversify Bets: Instead of putting all your money on one type of bet, consider spreading wagers across moneylines, spreads, and totals.

Should I bet on every game in the first round?

Betting on every game is generally not advisable. With 32 games in the first round, it’s easy to overextend your bankroll. Instead, focus on:

• Games where you have strong analytical support for your pick.
• Matchups that offer the best value based on odds.
• Avoiding games where the lines are sharp or unpredictable.

How do I incorporate betting into my March Madness bracket?

If you’re filling out a bracket and placing bets, consider these strategies:

• Align Bracket Picks with Bets: If you’re betting on a team to win in the first round, you may also want to advance them in your bracket.
• Fade Public Overreactions: If a team is being heavily hyped but has weaknesses, it may be wise to bet against them.
• Use Hedge Bets: If your bracket depends on a team winning, but the matchup is uncertain, a hedge bet on the opponent can minimize losses.

How do I bet on March Madness futures after the first round?

After the first round, the odds for futures bets, such as picking the eventual champion or Final Four teams, will shift based on results. Consider:

• Updated Value: Teams that looked dominant in the first round may have lower odds, but undervalued teams can still provide good returns.
• Bracket Paths: Look at a team’s path to the Final Four. If they have an easier route, their value as a futures bet increases.
• Injuries and Performance Trends: If key players get injured or teams struggle despite winning, this can impact future performance.

By understanding these factors, bettors can maximize their opportunities during March Madness while maintaining smart bankroll management. Whether you’re filling out a bracket, betting on individual games, or placing futures bets, strategy and discipline will be key to a successful tournament. ^  

March Madness First Round Betting in a Nutshell

Moneyline upset strategy

This strategy involves taking the lower seed and placing moneyline bets on that seed to upset higher seeded teams.

The strategy only works if the lower seeded squad is an underdog that offers overlay betting odds. So a 12-seed that’s a +100 ML dog versus a 5-seed may not be worth the trouble.

Faves to cover strategy in the first round

Quality teams sometimes have no choice but to cover. For example, a deep team like the Auburn Tigers could sit Johni Broome, the potential National Player of the Year, for an entire half and still cover versus a 16-seed. Duke could sit Cooper Flagg for a half and potentially cover versus a 16.

We always look for upsets in the first round. What about going to the opposite direction once in a while?

Consider all factors in addition to the history of first round upsets in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.

Defensive powerhouse strategy

Defense usually prevails in the NCAA Tournament. So if there is a high quality, high seed, defensive team playing a mid-major in the first round that’s a run and gun squad, going under could lead to nice profit.

Again, this isn’t a rule. It’s a strategy. So don’t go and bet on every defensive team in the first round.

This brings us to the most important aspect of March Madness First Round betting. Be selective. Be ultra-selective.

Every season, expert analysts choose the same first round upsets. Those almost never pan out. Do your own handicapping and stick to your gut as a college basketball betting handicapper. Good luck!

Senior VP Dan Gavitt provides @TheAndyKatz with an update on where things stand after Day 1 of selections. The committee has been placing teams on the seed list (in their initial positions before scrubbing) this morning. Enjoy the most underrated days on the sports calendar! https://t.co/jphhXJTqwg

— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 13, 2025

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