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The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the surprise teams in the major leagues in the early going as they open a weekend series at rival Philadelphia on Thursday night in the first meeting of the season between the teams. The Phils are favored on the MLB odds

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 2

How to Bet Pirates at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jared Jones/Ranger Suarez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -143, Pirates +117 (total 4.5)

Why Bet on Pittsburgh Pirates?

The Pirates lead the NL Central at 9-3 but come off a crushing 5-3 home loss to Detroit on Tuesday as the Bucs led 3-1 entering the top of the ninth but closer David Bednar imploded. The Pittsburgh native and two-time All-Star has struggled in the early going. He couldn’t lock down the save against Miami on March 31 or Baltimore on Saturday. Ultimately it didn’t cost his team as Pittsburgh managed to win both games. It did cost his team Tuesday.

It’s reasonable to assume Bednar might not be as sharp out of the gate as he normally would be after he was sidelined most of spring with a right lat strain. Pirates manager Derek Shelton said he thinks Bednar is healthy and the issue is centered on rust that built up while Bednar recovered from that lat injury. He didn’t pitch until the final week of the Grapefruit League season, so there are some cobwebs to knock off.

“It’s a matter of being sharp,” Shelton said. “But, I think this is also a matter of when you see pitchers miss spring training that this can have some effect. What we’ve seen over the past couple of years is elite command. Over the last three or four outings, that just hasn’t been there.”

Shelton didn’t rule out temporarily demoting Bednar and perhaps replacing him with seven-time All-Star reliever Aroldis Chapman, who is serving in a setup role. Edward Olivares hit a pair of solo homers in Tuesday’s loss. Olivares was lined up to be the hero today until David Bednar turned in a 3-1 lead into a 5-3 loss in the ninth. At .321/.367/.679 in 30 plate appearances, Olivares has been the Pirates’ best hitter thus far, though he’s been on the bench for five of the team’s 12 games. Star shortstop Oneil Cruz didn’t start Tuesday simply for rest. Cruz has put together a solid start to the regular season with five multi-hit games in his 11 games played and is slashing .304/.347/.803 with two homers.

It’s rookie right-hander Jared Jones (1-1, 3.86) on the mound Thursday. Jones came away with a no-decision in last Friday’s 5-2 loss to the Orioles, giving up two runs on six hits over six innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter. Jones got taken deep by Ryan O’Hearn in the second inning and Gunnar Henderson in the third, but he settled down after the solo shots and delivered his first career quality start while generating an incredible 21 swinging strikes among his 80 pitches. Jones has a dazzling 17:2 K:BB through his first 11.2 big-league innings.

Jones, 22, was the Pirates’ second-round pick back in 2020 and entered spring training ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Those rankings come on the heels of a strong 2023 season split between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, wherein Jones logged a combined 126 1/3 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. This spring, Jones pitched 16 1/3 innings without an earned run during Grapefruit League play, yielding just nine hits against eight walks with 15 punchouts.

Former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen is one home run shy of 300 in his career. The 37-year-old McCutchen ranks fourth all-time in Pirates history with 215 home runs (Willie Stargell ranks first with 475). McCutchen’s next home run would also make him one of just 13 players all-time with at least 2000 hits, 400 doubles, 45 triples, 300 home runs and 200 career stolen bases.

Pittsburgh Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on Philadelphia Phillies?

Monitor the status of Phillies All-Star catcher JT Realmuto. He is dealing with a bruised neck after taking a Zack Wheeler slider off of his neck in the seventh inning Tuesday but was in the lineup Wednesday – still, something like that can linger. Wheeler was pitching to Brendan Donovan when he bounced an 0-1 curveball, catching Realmuto on the right side of his neck above the collarbone and knocking off his mask.

Realmuto obviously was cleared of a concussion or he wouldn’t have played Wednesday. He often gets Thursdays off regardless so don’t be shocked if he sits this one out. Realmuto was 2-for-5 with two runs scored in Wednesday’s win in St. Louis. Jeff Hoffman turned in a scoreless ninth with a one-run lead for his first save against the Cardinals on Wednesday. After a 105-mph line-drive single and a routine flyout, Hoffman got a 111.6-mph grounder from Jordan Walker that turned into a game-ending double play. Hoffman still should be available Thursday if needed.

All-Star shortstop Trea Turner didn’t attempt a stolen base Wednesday but has stolen 39 straight bases without being caught, which is the longest such streak by any major league player since the Phillies’ own Jimmy Rollins swiped 39 straight from 9/1/07-7/19/08. Should Turner get to 40 straight, it would be the longest streak by any MLB player since Ichiro Suzuki stole 45 straight from April 2006 through May 2007. The last time Turner was caught stealing was on Sept. 5, 2022, vs. the Giants in a delayed steal in which he beat the throw but came off the bag at 2nd – if he hadn’t come off the base on that steal, he would be at 52 straight steals. For his career, Turner is now 264-for-306 in stolen base attempts and his 86.3% success rate.

The Phillies have been much more patient at the plate this season. As a team, the Phillies have lowered their chase rate from last year to this year by 2.8% (31.3% in 2023 to 28.5% in 2024) which marks the 6th-largest drop of any club in MLB. Turner has lowered his chase rate from 35.3% in 2023 to 24.5% this season (-10.8%).

However, five of the Phillies’ everyday players — Turner, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas — have yet to homer. Castellanos is still searching for his first extra-base hit. The only Phillies with an OPS of .800 or better are Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh. The Phillies are 27th in average exit velocity (87.7 mph), 22nd in hard-hit rate (36.8 percent), 28th in barrel rate (3.7) and 24th in expected slugging percentage (375). Pitching has carried the team through their first four series.

“We’re not creating any slug right now and that’s part of our M.O.,” Manager Rob Thomson said. “I think the last few games we’ve been pretty good with staying in the strike zone.”

It’s lefty Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.09) on the hill for Philadelphia. Suarez allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in a win against the Nationals last Saturday, striking out four. Suarez was solid for most of the contest, with the exception of the bottom of the third when he left a sinker over the plate for Joey Gallo to crush over the wall in right field. The lefty didn’t allow another hit from that point on, though he was relieved by Jeff Hoffman in the bottom of the seventh after beaning a hitter to open the frame. Suarez has now gone at least five innings in each of his first two starts to open the season with 11 strikeouts to just one walk.

“My goal is 200 innings,” said Suárez, who was 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 22 starts (125 innings) in ’23. “Two hundred innings is a good goal. I want to throw as many innings as I can.”

Suarez is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in six career appearances (three starts) vs. Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Pirates vs Phillies Expert Prediction

Phillies 5, Pirates 4

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